Geneive Abdo

The debate over whether the United States has shown enough support for Iran’s opposition movement has intensified since protestors in Tehran last week shouted, “Obama, Obama! Either you’re with them, or with us.”

Joining the opposition chorus is a growing line-up of parties worldwide, all calling on Obama to broaden his strategy from one narrowly focused on making an acceptable nuclear deal with Iran to one that also includes demands to allow the opposition to freely express itself: the government of France; members of the U.S. Congress; international human rights organizations; and much of the active Iranian diaspora.

Iran’s strategy so far has been to ratchet up pressure on the opposition, and eventually to crush it altogether, while prolonging the nuclear negotiations with the West, led by the United States. It is a safe bet that in the months ahead, Iran’s leadership will continue to reject proposals from the 5+1 while offering counterproposals it knows the West will almost certainly refuse. This will give it time to consolidate its power – or perhaps simply wear down the opposition – after the worst civil unrest since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

With this in mind, Obama’s decision to remain silent on the lack of freedom for the opposition makes little sense. French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, said of demonstrations on Nov. 4: “We don’t really know the situation in Tehran. We know the demonstrators were very numerous, a big crowd in the middle of Tehran. We don’t know if some of them were hurt or died … but it was a very, very important movement.” He also said that he was “profoundly concerned” about the government’s actions towards the opposition rally.

In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that Kouchner’s remarks ran counter to French interests. “We are getting used to the French foreign minister’s lack of insight regarding the developments of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and we believe that these ignorant statements would adversely affect the interest of the French nation,” Mottaki said.

“Instead of making condemnatory statements against others, I would advise Mr. Kouchner to pay a little visit to the suburbs of Paris to catch on to the ongoing human rights violations taking place there,” he added, in a pointed reference to simmering tensions between members of France’s minority underclass – many of them Muslims – and the authorities.

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=110600&sectionid=351020101

Setting aside the merits of calling Iran on its gross human rights violations, there is another reason the mounting pressure is justified: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is trying to exchange Iran’s participation in the nuclear talks for a pass from the United States and its allies on human rights and the increasing militarization of the state apparatus. Iran shows all the signs of prolonging the negotiations, while it attempts to stabilize the country through repressive measures.

Since the questionable June presidential election, Obama has remained largely silent on the ongoing human rights violations inside Iran, which include show trials of demonstrators, torture, if not the murder, of political prisoners, threats of charges against prominent opposition figures, and the arrests of journalists – the latter now topping 100 since the disputed presidential polls, according to the latest reports.

http://www.rsf.org/spip.php?page=article&id_article=34918

Marking the 30th anniversary of the U.S. Embassy takeover in Tehran on November 4, Obama’s official statement seemed to capture the dilemma facing the administration and its apparent desire to keep all options open, despite the increased pressure on opposition forces. Events in Iran do move slowly, but the short- and medium-term picture is becoming clear; it is time for Obama to move beyond his earlier strategy of “wait-and-see.”

“The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history,” the president said. He also made clear that the United States would “not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs,” seen by many as both a recognition of general Iranian nationalist sentiment, but also as reassurance to the ruling elite. He tempered that with the reminder that “the world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights.”

http://www.irannewsnow.com/2009/11/barack-obamas-message-to-iran-on-november-4/

Referring to a Tehran-based journalist, Radio Free Europe reported that Obama should not make the “mistake” and undermine the United States’ popularity among ordinary Iranians. Continued silence or any deal with Tehran that does not address the concerns of ordinary Iranians, including expanded civil liberties, risks just that and could tarnish Obama’s considerable international standing.

http://www.rferl.org/content/What_Does_Irans_Green_Movement_Want_From_Obama_/1871445.html?page=1#relatedInfoContainer

It is clear that Iran’s leadership will continue to use the same hard-line tactics to crush future protests. Brigadier Masoud Jazaeri, the cultural deputy of Iran’s armed forces joint command, stated that the possibility of arresting protesters in the future still remains open. “A large number of individuals involved in the plot have been identified till today and they will be confronted in time.”

http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2009/november/09//guards-threaten-to-punish-activists-outside-iran.html

Research conducted by Edith Novy