Shayan Ghajar
As tensions between Iran and the United States reach levels unprecedented in recent years, the United States seeks to pressure nations and corporations with a stake in Iran’s oil industry to join in an embargo on the Islamic Republic’s most lucrative source of revenue. more»
Staff
The Iranian response to the recent IAEA report has been quick, dismissive, and defiant.
Lawmakers, politicians, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp commanders have bluntly attacked the report and questioned the credibility and independence of the IAEA, charging the Agency with illegally conducting its proceedings and accepting fabricated evidence. All have vehemently reiterated a commitment to the continuing progress of Iran’s nuclear program. more»
Shayan Ghajar
On October 16, in an otherwise unremarkable and routine speech, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dropped a potent political bomb by suggesting that Iran could easily transition from a system with a presidency to a parliamentary-based system with an appointed prime minister. The comment, however brief, was certainly intended as a major warning to the politically rebellious faction spearheaded by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and may even indicate a sincere intent to abolish the presidency in Iran. Indeed, a number of statements by powerful elites before and after Khamenei’s speech seem to lend credence to the idea that Ahmadinejad may be one of Iran’s last presidents.
more»
Iran Hopes Deal Will End Conflict; United States Moves Defiantly Toward UN Sanctions
Shayan Ghajar
Iran’s press agencies are universally celebrating the widely reported deal between Iran, Brazil, and Turkey to hold exchanges of Iran’s enriched uranium on Turkish soil. State- owned or affiliated news services, ranging from the Islamic Republic News Agency to PressTV and Fars News, all laud the deal as an effective compromise between the West’s anxieties about Iran’s nuclear program and Iran’s insistence upon its rights according to the NPT. Iran’s exuberance also stems from the diplomatic victory the deal represents, which complicates the West’s push for sanctions by indicating, at least symbolically, and perhaps substantively,a willingness to compromise. On the other hand, reactions from Europe and the United States have been utterly dismissive, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton submitting proposals for sanctions to the U.N. Security Council Tuesday morning.
Coverage of the nuclear deal in the Iranian press has been universal and extensive, more so than any other topic in recent months, indicating that the Iranian government has placed all of its hopes in avoiding a more direct confrontation with the West.
Iran’s Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali-Akbar Salehi, stated today that the deal indicated Iran’s “good will,” and he hoped the West would react to Iran’s overtures “with wisdom.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Monday that Iran expects a “positive reaction” from Western nations,Fars News reports. “Confidence should be built for all sides and we are optimistic that this will, God willing, be put into practice.”
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking as if the nuclear deal had already resolved all international friction regarding Iran’s program, said, “The experience of the tripartite talks in Tehran indicates that if cooperation is based on amity and respect, problems will not arise between nations and countries.”
Iranian press services also widely covered statements made by Turkish and Brazilian leaders against sanctions in light of the new agreement. “My expectation is that after this declaration there will not be a need for sanctions,”Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday. The Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim issued a similar statement earlier, saying, “The agreement gives a guarantee to the West to continue talks and that imposing sanctions on Iran by the West has no basis anymore.”
The wording of the nuclear deal itself corroborates that making the deal was one of the major goals of Turkey, Brazil, and Iran. The signatories state their goal as the “positive interaction and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities replacing and avoiding all kinds of confrontation.”
The Iranian government has been uncharacteristically upfront regarding its hopes that the nuclear fuel swap deal would preclude the need for sanctions. Reuters quotes Iranian Nuclear Head Salehi as explicitly stating on national television that the agreement was aimed at “stopping sanctions.” Salehi also said the nuclear deal eliminated the West’s “excuses” for calling for more sanctions by providing greater transparency and cooperation, PressTV reports. The title of the PressTV story also highlights the almost confrontational tone of Iran’s compromise: “Iran throws ball into West’s court.”
The reaction from Western powers has been entirely dismissive of the new nuclear fuel swap agreement, as sanction proposals have been submitted to the Security Council on Tuesday, the day after the deal was struck. In a press release, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs pointed out Monday that “Iran said today that it would continue its 20% enrichment, which is a direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions and which the Iranian government originally justified by pointing to the need for fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor.”
The Washington Post asserts that the current agreement would only concern 50% of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, which leaves a great deal of uncertainty about the security and oversight of the other half of Iran’s enriched materiel. Moreover, the Post argues, the sanctions being discussed are a reaction to Iran’s recently revealed secret facilities, which it kept hidden from IAEA oversight.
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has also gone on to say that Iran’s compromise will not slow sanctions. Tuesday morning, Secretary Clinton declared, “We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of both Russia and China,” according to the New York Times. As long as Iran continues enrichment, it seems, the nuclear fuel swap agreement is not germane to American-led discussions about sanctions. Not only did the United States decline to consider the Iranian proposal, if anything, the process to sanctions seems to have sped up. Clinton also claimed to have the support of China and Russia, despite an earlier statement from China welcoming the diplomatic progress made by Turkey and Brazil as a sign negotiation, rather than confrontation, would work. Russia, on the other hand, made it clear they consider the deal inadequate.
After Turkey’s enormous efforts in negotiating the breakthrough deal, its government has expressed extreme dissatisfaction with the West’s reaction to Iran’s concession. Turkish Foreign Minster Ahmet Davutoğlu made a public statement severely castigating the West for its response to the deal. “If reaching an agreement on the swap was not important, why would we spend so much time and energy on the issue?” he asked. “This is the first indirect deal signed by Iran with the West in 30 years.” Davutoğlu’s tone was clearly one of hurt surprise. “The discussions on sanctions will spoil the atmosphere and the escalation of statements may provoke the Iranian public,” he argued. The Foreign Minister speculated that the West’s reaction was so confrontational because they hadn’t actually expected the talks to work.
It seems that Iran’s attempt to forestall or prevent efforts for sanctions from the West has come to naught. However, Iran still may declare the deal a limited victory: both Turkey and Brazil, rotating members of the U.N. Security Council, have declared openly they are entirely against sanctions, despite U.S. pressure. China, too, seems to be on the fence about sanctions, regardless of the Secretary of State’s rhetoric. The final outcome of the sanctions vote is far from definite, and it remains to be seen how debates in the Security Council will affect the votes of the member nations.