Kayhan Kasravi

BERLIN– Demonstrations on February 11 had not yet ended when self-criticism began to appear on some web pages and social networking sites about poor decisions made by some Green Movement activists and a number of opposition leaders .

Most members of the opposition believed that the government was not going to resort to violence due to the presence of a few hundred foreign reporters and journalists to cover the day’s events. The Green Movement had planned for a massive presence on that day, but the presence of the opposition on this fateful day, which was supposed to be a large and strong, was much smaller than expected. Many dissidents called this the “first tactical defeat of the Green Movement after a series of victories.”

Increasing security measures in cyber space to find dissidents and those organizing the protests, and widespread detention of activists, journalists, and those able to organize large crowds intensified after the last demonstrations in December. Furthermore, the government used large numbers of security and military forces to control the venues of the demonstration and attacked the leaders of the opposition before they even joined the crowds. The government’s fear tactics also proved to be effective in reducing the number of protestors on the streets.

What made many members of the opposition critical of the tactics of the organizers was the so-called “Trojan horse” method, which was publicized in some opposition websites a few days before the February 11 demonstration. According to this strategy, the protestors were supposed to appear in various locations without revealing their Green identities, and when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad began his speech, the Green crowd would show their Green symbols and signs. The goal of this theory was to gather a large crowd of protestors together.

The creators of this theory, who are among some leading opposition figures outside Iran, had advised the protestors to go to the rallies looking like normal pro-government folks; that is, the men had some facial hair and women wore complete Islamic hijab. But many eyewitnesses say that this caused the protestors to scatter around and get confused and many of them were not able to identify one another. Therefore, it was impossible to tell them apart from government supporters. As a result, they were considered pro-government demonstrators.

Since the Green movement is an active movement, a wave of self-criticism began on the web following the February 11 events in order to find the reasons behind this defeat.
Some believe that street demonstrations are not the goal, but a means and therefore, the members of the opposition should not become disappointed after one defeat following several victories. Instead, they must learn from it for the future.. In the past eight months, national and religious holidays were used by the opposition to stage demonstrations, but there is some concern because there are few holidays left in the calendar this year.

Some analysts believe that February 11 showed the end of aimless street demonstrations. Lack of leadership and centralized organization was usually mentioned as a plus in the Green Movement, but Abbas Abdi, a prominent Iranian commentator, says, “Lack of leadership, in which protests would be led by this leadership, is actually a weakness of the movement.” In his view, “Street demonstrations should only take place according to the orders of the leadership of the movement in a purposeful manner in order to force the government to back down and accept the demands of the opposition.”

Abdi says February 11 must be the end of street protests and the beginning of new tactics for the Green Movement. He adds, “The actions of this political movement should not be based on the government’s actions, and decisions must be made independently.”

Some analysts say the gradual elevation of demands in the past eight months, which began by chanting “Where is my vote?” has now reached slogans “aiming to destroy (Supreme Clerical rule) Velayat Faqih.” They claim this is a weakness of the movement. According to them, the elevation of demands has meant losing supporters that would have otherwise backed the movement.

Another criticism is that Iranian intellectuals and the political elites just follow the events and do not provide guidance prior to events. These critics assert that the goals and demands of the Green Movement must be defined and they believe this is the responsibility of intellectuals and the political elites.

After the events of February 11 and the defeat of the “Trojan horse” theory, it is safe to say that almost all members of the opposition now agree to only follow the visions of the domestic leaders of the movement – not those opposition figures outside the country — because they are better aware of the conditions on the ground and can provide better solutions. They argue that the opposition in exile is bereft of good understanding about Iran’s domestic situation and only dreams about becoming the leaders of the movement.

Kayhan Kasravi is an Iranian journalist living in exile in Berlin.