Babak

TEHRAN—It might seem logical to the U.S. government that Iran’s political crisis—and the hard-liners’ assertion of power over the state—make it harder for Western countries to negotiate with Iran. But, in fact, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad needs to improve relations with the West to ensure his own survival.

In the aftermath of the June 12 election and the unrest that has followed, Ahmadinejad and the rest of Iran’s leadership are unable to fight on two fronts—the one at home and the other abroad. The repression of political opposition figures now in prisons and the aggression toward ordinary Iranians in the streets will continue. But in foreign relations, Iran seeks to decrease international pressure over its nuclear program. In the eyes of Iran’s leadership, engaging in negotiations with the United Nations can go a long way toward diminishing this pressure.

Despite the official position of Ahmadinejad and the hard-liners within his inner circle, all of whom are publicly hostile toward the United States, it is clear that Ahamadinejad wants to normalize relations with Washington. He has made several trips to New York, giving speeches at the United Nations and engaging in direct negotiations with mediators such as Hooshang Amirahmadi, president of the American Iranian Council.

Some abroad might view this behavior as another example of Ahmadinejad’s irrationality. But it should be noted that Ahmadinejad’s behavior would be impossible without the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is because Ahmadinejad has Khamenei’s support that there is any progress in negotiations with the United States, such as occurred on October 1. Similar attempts in the past by reformers have failed. Former President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani wanted nothing more than to convince the administration of President Ronald Reagan that United States could engage with Iran’s moderate leaders. But these attempts always have been unsuccessful and opposed severely by the hard-liners, who fear the reformers will reap the political rewards from the Iranian people for reconciling with the United States.

Even so, the road ahead for Ahmadinejad will not be easy. First, the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic corps always has had a rough time with Western negotiators. And under Ahmadinejad, the diplomats are even more unskilled and inexperienced in dealing with the West.

Second, Ahmadinejad needs to satisfy his hard-line advocates in Iran and in some Arab states by continuing his blistering anti-American and anti-Jewish rhetoric. This of course is not going to curry favor with the very Western states with whom Iran is now engaging. Each time that Ahmadinejad denies the existence of the Holocaust, pressure is placed on the U.S. government to take action.

Ahmadinejad also has come under increasing fire for several other reasons, as well. President Barack Obama’s speech in Pittsburgh last week showed that, despite his positive gestures toward Iran, he is proceeding cautiously. He has no choice, considering Iran’s recent revelations of a uranium enrichment plant near the holy Shiite city of Qom. This plant had been unknown to the outside world.
France and Great Britain also have showed less patience with Iran in recent months, due to accusations from Iranian leaders that both countries were behind the so-called velvet revolution—the series of demonstrations—this past summer.

But no matter whether the United States takes a more conciliatory position toward Iran in the future or not, Ahmadinejad still will need to rouse the Iranian masses with “Death to America” slogans. No matter what might change in the near future, the ideological propaganda perpetuated by Iran’s leader is likely to remain the same.

Babak is a political activist and former journalist.