Arash Arameesh

In an interview with Iran’s state-owned television on June 13, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil was “still alive.” His comments followed a wave of harsh reactions by hardliners against the UN Security Council resolution imposing a new round of sanctions on Iran.

President Ahmadinejad said the UN Security Council had lost its legitimacy and had become a tool for world powers. He said the resolution “lacked legitimacy” and did not have unanimous support in the Security Council.

President Ahmadinejad mocked US President Barack Obama and said the American leader “begged” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to vote against the resolution.

Iranian hardliners had threatened to sever Iran’s ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency and pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should the UN levy new sanctions on Iran. Following the resolution’s passage, the Iranian parliament, dominated by conservatives, scheduled to vote on a bill last Sunday June 13 in order to “revise Iran’s ties with the IAEA.” The vote never took place.

Despite hardliners’ rhetoric, the Iranian government seems to have caved in, at least for now, to international pressure. Recent remarks by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin about Russia’s intention to further delay the delivery of advanced S-300 missiles and the recent revival of the military option promoted by hawks in Washington may have caused the Iranian leadership to abstain from rash reactions and convinced them to try to maintain their ties to the international community in order to solve Iran’s nuclear issue peacefully.

But surprisingly, Iran’s most powerful man has not weighed in on the nuclear issue yet. Since the trilateral declaration made in Tehran on May 16, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has remained silent on the nuclear issue. As the head of state in Iran and arguably the most powerful decision maker in the Islamic Republic, Khamenei’s approval is vital for any nuclear deal reached with the West and with the IAEA. His silence on the issue is an indicator that he does not want to weigh in prematurely and that he would like to see the nuclear swap deal to run its course.

What should not be discounted is Khamenei’s deep mistrust of the West. Last October, when President Ahmadinejad expressed willingness to negotiate with the US and accept the offer made by the 5+1, Khamenei and his surrogates undermined Ahmadinejad’s efforts and forced him to reject any fuel exchange deal with the 5+1.

This time around, however, the Supreme Leader seems to be in favor of, or at least not against, the nuclear swap deal. Six months after Khamenei undercut the Iranian president’s efforts in reaching a deal with the West, the Islamic Republic agreed to the very same fuel swap to take place in Turkey. Prime Minister Erdogan’s insistence that Iran was willing to cooperate with the international community on the nuclear swap deal was an indicator that the Turks had received some sort of guarantee from Iran’s highest ranking office holder.