Arash Aramesh

Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi met on April 26 to discuss plans for the one -year anniversary of the June 12 election. In this meeting, the two leaders of the opposition Green Movement called on the Iranian people to join protest rallies throughout the country marking the anniversary of what they have repeatedly called a rigged election.

Moussavi and Karroubi cited various sections of the Iranian constitution allowing the right to peaceful assembly and the right to peaceful demonstration and asked all political parties and groups to submit their requests to the Ministry of Interior.

Moussavi criticized the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and said the administration’s policies were pointless and lacked cohesiveness. He continued by adding that the government thinks people suffer from short memories and asserted, “The government thinks people will forget their deeds and their actions, but that is not the case.”

Karroubi agreed with Moussavi and said, “Unfortunately, what they [government] put people through is done under the name of Islam and these actions will damage Islam.” Karroubi expressed concern about the current situation in Iran and described it as “horrific.”

It is unlikely that the Ministry of Interior, now under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Brig Gen Mohammad Mostafa-Najjari, would issue such a permit. A low turnout on June 12 will probably give the hardliners more ammunition to attack the leaders of the Green Movement and increase pressure on opposition activists.

Iranian security forces have demonstrated their ability in dealing with small demonstrations and preventing them from turning into a massive protest like the one on June 15, 2010, in which an estimated two million demonstrators shook the streets of Iran’s capital. Since then, the IRGC, Basij forces and the police deployed large numbers of troops to Tehran and brutally suppressed any opposition gathering.

Organizing a large demonstration might prove to be difficult. With very limited means of communication with the Iranian people due to the regime’s manipulation of the internet, Moussavi and Karroubi will have a hard time announcing their plans to the public and asking them to participate in demonstrations commemorating the first anniversary of the disputed June 12 election.