Arash Aramesh

Tehran’s Governor Morteza Tamaddon said today June 11 that, “No permits have been issued for any gathering on June 12 and we will deal with law breakers through legal means.”

According to Mehr, a semi-official news agency, Tamaddon said, “(The) Iranian people have dealt a number of blows to the sedition and since their evil plans to fight the Islamic Republic were defeated. They have recently started a psychological war… and that is why they requested a permit to hold demonstrations.”

The Governor of Tehran added, “There was no reason for us to issue a permit when society’s general atmosphere is calm.” He asserted, “We will not tolerate any illegal action,” and “we will deal with law breakers.”

Tamaddon’s remarks come less than 24 hours before the first anniversary of the June 12 presidential election. Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, de facto leaders of the opposition Green Movement, announced June 10 that there was not going to be a demonstration and asked their supporters to stay home. They said they feared for demonstrators’ lives.

Lackluster turnout in previous demonstrations made a number of observers believe that the opposition was defeated and the government was fully and firmly in control. The government’s refusal to issue a demonstration permit, and threats that anyone who shows up will be dealt with, are all signs that Iran’s hardliners are not that confident about their claim that the Green Movement has been effectively defeated.

Iran’s leaders fear that if the opposition is given the chance of holding an uninterrupted and safe demonstration, massive crowds, like the one on June 15, 2009 would likely show up to demonstrate against the government. And they are not sure whether their security apparatus is capable of handling the crowds again without killing scores of people.

Lack of confidence is also apparent in the opposition camp. Moussavi and Karroubi’s call to cancel the June 12 demonstration was partly due to their fear that only a few thousand, or even worse, a few hundred people might turnout, proving to the government that the Green Movement has lost its most important asset, popular support in urban areas.