Babak

TEHRAN—After the controversial June 12 presidential election, and the most critical days in the history of the Islamic Republic that followed, elders in various political parties and different factions believe that a unity plan is the only way out of the current crisis.

There are indications that the Green Movement is in favor of this plan, to prevent the movement from becoming too radicalized. But some conservatives, too, favor such a compromise. Moderate conservatives, such as Habibollah Asgar-Oladi, Ali Larijani, Ali Motahhari, and Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, were among key Iranian politicians who directly and indirectly brought up the idea of a unity plan and spoke about their negotiations at the highest levels of government to make this plan a reality. What made this group of seasoned politicians lean toward the views of former President Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who himself introduced a unity plan in July, was their fear of the total annihilation of reason and moderation in running the country and the deepening of the domestic crisis. They also fear that the so-called traditional right, which includes them, will have the same fate as the reformists, who have been politically marginalized by the hardliners.

Since the election, the pro-government faction has made comments and acted in a way that shows they believe they have enough power to solve the crisis by force. Instead of trying to address the demands of the opposition, they want to ignore their grievances, no matter how costly this might be. Furthermore, it is evident that the radical conservative faction, given their political goals, is in no way willing to negotiate or reconcile with the opposition that protested the results of the June 12 election, but rather are after the total elimination of the reformists from all corners of the Iranian political landscape.

Despite repeated assertions made by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei regarding the need to respect Hashemi-Rafsanjani (who has been supportive of the goals of the opposition movement and has angered ultra-conservatives), radical positions taken and insulting remarks made by figures such as the hardliner Ruhollah Hosseinian against Rafsanjani have continued. This is evidence that the supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are moving against the dictates of Ayatollah Khamenei and are trying to add fuel to the fire of crisis.

Since the Ashura protests in December, protestors have changed their slogans; instead of chanting against the government and election fraud, they now have targeted Supreme Leader Khamenei. According to predictions made months earlier, this shift has pushed the opposition Green Movement out of the reformist framework, which was previously defined as peaceful and nonviolent, and turned it into a movement that is becoming radical and revolutionary.

Mir Hossein Moussavi’s seventeenth statement, which was issued following the events of Ashura, defended the ideological basis of the Green Movement, while deliberately declining to discredit the government. At the same time, the statement called for moderation and reason in dealing with the issues facing Iranian society. Moussavi put forth five steps as solutions and an exit strategy from the current crisis. This made those in support of easing tensions and ending the crisis happy and gave them some hope for a peaceful and democratic solution to the complicated situation at hand. The state-run media also has shown signs of a compromise. In recent weeks, television and radio, this powerful media controlled by the Supreme Leader, appears willing to give the opposition a forum to express their grievances and talk about the reasons behind the crisis of the past seven months.

What is certain is that the only way for the survival of the Green Movement, which has a reformist and not revolutionary identity, is to go beyond the current crisis and return calm, peace, and reason back to the mainstream. Two main groups certainly will oppose this analysis. One group is composed of those who seek nothing less than the complete destruction of the Islamic Republic and have pursued the same goal in the past thirty years. This group believes mistakenly that the regime is on the verge of collapse. Therefore, they welcome the radicalization of the movement and encourage it to move to the revolutionary phase. The second group is composed of those who see the suppression of all protestors and dissidents as the only way to protect their interests. They believe in totalitarian methods and welcome the radicalization of the movement, for it then would justify their harsh crackdown on the movement.

Babak is a political activist and former journalist.