Keyhan Kasravi

BERLIN—A series of events in recent weeks have made many political commentators conclude that Iran’s pro-democracy movement is becoming radicalized. The death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri was the first event in this series. Ayatollah Montazeri was known as the spiritual leader of the Green Movement. He was a prominent figure during the early years of the revolution but was later sidelined because of his protests over the mass executions of political dissidents in Iran in the 1980s. In the 1990s, he became a serious critic of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Hundreds of thousands of people participated in Montazeri’s funeral in Qom, Iran’s religious capital. In these demonstrations, people chanted new slogans, which the government interpreted as their intention to uproot and topple the regime. These slogans also were said to have broken boundaries, such as “Death to the concept of Velayat Faqih,” or “Shame on you Khamenei, Rest in peace Montazeri,” and “Khamenei is a murderer and his velayat is invalid.”

Over the past six months, since the birth of the Green Movement, the opposition has proven that it is a creative campaign of civil disobedience. In a country where all radio and television stations are state-owned, the Green Movement has been able to utilize the Internet successfully to organize events and inform the world of human rights abuses in Iran. One of the important dates on which the opposition had planned extensively for mass protests was Ashura, a holy day for Shiite Muslims commemorating the death of Imam Hossein.

Organizers assumed that, during the holy month of Moharram, and on the day of Ashura, the government would not use brute force and shed anyone’s blood. But the government’s reaction to the mass presence of people was shocking. Photos and videos from the protests showed that the government believed violence was the only way to deal with the demonstrations.

During the bloody events of Ashura, thousands of protestors directly criticized the Supreme Leader, and the very establishment of the Velayat Faqih. They went as far as to demand the end of the regime and the dissolution of the post of Supreme Leader. This was the first time that no chants against Ahmadinejad were heard. This is an excellent indicator of a change in people’s demands. It also shows the changing nature of the movement. In June, the opposition movement protested against the rigged election, and demonstrators vowed to maintain a peaceful movement. Now, the opposition’s primary grievance is no longer focused on the disputed election, but demonstrators want a change in the overall leadership of Iran.

This change of attitudes by the protestors has resulted in a much harsher reaction by the coercive apparatus. According to official numbers, eight protestors were killed in recent weeks, among them a nephew of Mir Hossein Moussavi.

The events of Ashura showed that the Green Movement is going to endure, and the policies of terror and fear employed by the government are not going to be effective. These events, however, created new doubts for a certain segment of society, which now may become more radicalized and divorced from the goals of the opposition movement. Some commentators warn that Iran is not ready for the consequences of a rapid revolution.

Immediately after the events of Ashura, Iranian security services began a new wave of arrests among political and social activists. The government called the protestors “enemies of God” and hardliners asked for their immediate executions. In this tense situation, everyone was waiting for Moussavi’s reaction. After four days, Moussavi issued his seventeenth statement in response to threats made by the government. He said the leaders of the movement were not afraid of death or martyrdom.

Many observers and commentators believe that Moussavi’s recent statement was wise and clever, for it opened the doors to negotiating with the government and gave the rulers an opportunity to prevent the collapse of the regime through reforms. On the other hand, his statement is also an ultimatum. Many viewed his statement as the final solution before the final collapse.

In his statement, Moussavi asked Khameini to stop his irrational and unconditional support of the government and allow the people to make judgments on the actions of the administration. Freedom of the press, the freedom of assembly, freedom of all political prisoners, and the reform of electoral laws in Iran are all among Moussavi’s demands.

The ball is now in the government’s court. Early reactions by conservatives indicate that they are not going to accept these conditions. But Moussavi’s proposal likely will deepen the cleavage among the conservatives in the upcoming weeks.

The thirty-first anniversary of the Islamic Revolution is in February. Protestors already have planned for demonstrations on this day. We shall wait and see how the government is going to deal with demonstrators. It all depends on the decisions of conservative political figures and the Supreme Leader.

Keyhan Kasravi is an Iranian activist living in exile in Berlin.