Ehsan Mehrabi

Iran and the United States could be closer to a military confrontation now than at any other time since the 1979 revolution. According to my numerous encounters with Iranian military officials, Iranian officials assume a military confrontation with the United States will be a decisive and quick operation. Therefore, Iran is planning to respond with a war of attrition and sabotage in the region and across the globe.

I was the chief editor of the Sokhangooyeh Do’alat, the official website for the Iranian government in 2003-2004. I was also a reporter who extensively wrote for various Iranian publications about military and security matters. During my career, I have had many meetings and interviews with military commanders from various ranks and even was awarded a prize for my work by the Foundation for Preservation of the Holy Defense Values, which is a state organization in charge of preserving and promoting the revolutionary values of the Iran-Iraq war.

For more than ten years–during many formal and informal meetings– as a journalist in Iran, I have always been curious about the strategies the Iranian military is planning for a potential confrontation with the United States.
I recall a famous Iranian idiom that was quite popular among the military officials: “If we drown, we’ll drown everyone with us.” They were pretty clear about their intention. If attacked by a Western power, the war would not be contained within the Iranian boarders. The entire world would become Iran’s battleground – at least this was their thinking.

Serious of tactics and strategies were continually discussed in public and private gatherings, including the following:

A Manual for Causing Damage to the United States and Asymmetrical Warfare

On September 23, 2007, the Etemad Meli newspaper published my interview with General Ezatollah Ghafourzadeh, the chief of the Iranian Army’s Strategic Research Center. I believe he felt comfortable talking to me because I knew him well and we were from the same city.

In this interview, Ghafourzadeh announced the news of the publication of a classified book entitled, “Methods for Causing Damage to Trans-Regional Enemies” by Iran’s Army. He was, of course, referring to the United States. According to the statements by the Iranian General, various strategies for causing damage to the United States in different areas has been studied and spelled out in this manual. He also talked about the formation of a group called, the Council of Future Studies, which meets every three months and updates the manual and a defensive plan for a potential war.

This council also studies and plans for a potential “disproportionate war” with the United States. They have conducted other studies under various titles such as “Armored Unites,” “Applications for Mortar Units,” “Psychological Operations,” and the “Application of Artillery Units in Asymmetrical Warfare.”

The findings of the aforementioned studies has been that by dividing the army into many independently operating units, in an event of a military conflict with the United States, each post would be able to autonomously make decisions without communicating with the headquarters.

A Global War with the United States

During our conversation, Ghafourizadeh stated: “We will force the enemy to fight us [on our terms], when we want to and where we want to…by observing and studying America’s war in Iraq, and the Kosovo War, the Lebanon War, and the tactics used by Hamas, we have developed a native style of warfare. We have incorporated the [aforementioned lessons] with our own abilities and understanding and created a new native combat style.”

Simply put, the new styles of warfare the Iranian commanders speak about are newer and wider subversive operations. These are similar to strategies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon or even groups like Al-Qaeda. Iranians have learned from such tactics, have added their own knowledge and expertise, and will potentially implement them in a geographically wider and more devastating manner. Such a war might even be launched against the United States and European countries.

After my interview with Ghafourzadeh, I attempted to verify his statements, so I searched for his remarks published in other news media. In another interview with Mehr News, a semi-official news agency, on October 20, 2007, Ghafourzadeh stated: “At any time and in any place, we are able to engage the enemy in unorganized and tactical warfare. In the past, Iran’s military was only able to combat the enemy in an organized fashion. However today, our troops have the ability to engage the enemy with any type of clothing; in any style of warfare.”

A Quick and Decisive War

The tactics Ghafourzadeh and other Iranian commanders refer to as “new methods of fighting,” include a short duration of fighting, immense firepower, and an extensive geographic area. He publically explained part of this strategy in his interview with the Hamshahri newspaper on March 9, 2009:

“In future wars, the enemy will showcase its ground ability via high mobility mechanized offensive units…today the military operations take place around the clock. The enemy will operate night and day. Instead of direct running battles [with the enemy], the modern [Iranian] operations are vast, three dimensional, and multifaceted… It is no longer true that a war would, for example, start at the Iran-Iraq border and end there. An outbreak of a possible war could directly impact all the countries and the region as a whole.”

According to this commander’s statements and based on my other numerous encounters with other Iranian military officials, I believe Iran is planning to respond with a war of attrition and sabotage in the region and across the globe.

Using Propaganda as Deterrence

When I encountered the Iranian official’s public rants and propaganda against the West, I always wondered why, despite the highly classified nature of these strategies, military officials announce them publically.

I found my answer during a conference with Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s former Defense Minister, with government officials. In that meeting, Shamkhani was asked about the reason behind the heightened propaganda about Iran’s military abilities. Shamkhani’s response was illuminating. Iran’s Defense Ministry was implementing the strategy of deterring a foreign attack by publically announcing Iran’s military capabilities. The officials believed by declaring, and perhaps exaggerating the Islamic Republic’s abilities, the United States would be dissuaded from attacking the country.

According to Shamkhani, this policy was reviewed and approved by Iran’s political elites and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. During the same time period an organization by the name of the Central Military Propaganda Office was established in the Defense Ministry. This newly-founded center was tasked with advertising the military capabilities of the Islamic Republic in order to paint a harsh outcome for the United States if it decides to attack Iran.

This strategy would in turn increase the morale of internal forces and the population as well. Shamkhani labeled this tactic as “strengthening psychological operations.” These psychological operations are still taking place and they are aimed at strengthening the moral of the Iranian troops against the enemy’s damage.

Mandatory Readiness Training

The Iranian commanders talk about modern means of warfare, but their reliance on unconventional warfare requires a great deal of manpower. According to my discussion with various military officials, which were censored by the Army’s Intelligence Office and never published, another strategy, which is being discussed but has yet to be executed, is the implementation of a mandatory readiness training service. Each individual who has already completed his military service will be asked to annually report to various military bases and renew his military training.

Planning for a confrontation after the United States invasion of Iraq

However, despite their official statements dismissing the possibility of a military attack by the United States, the Iranian officials are taking the threats very seriously. Since the day the United States invaded Iraq, the Iranian officials began their planning for a potential confrontation. The Ministers of Commerce and Agriculture were tasked with planning and preparing for a potential war with the West and finding ways to provide the country with the necessary food supplies. These trends continue to this day and all officials are required to keep the possibility of a potential war in mind as they are planning for future.

Ehsan Mehrabi is a distinguished Iranian journalist who has written about the Islamic Republic’s military, parliamentary politics, and various other socio-political issues for more than a decade. He has worked as the parliamentary reporter for the reformist newspapers Etemad Meli and Tose’eh, and as a reporter and political editor for Hambastegi newspaper. During his career he has interviewed many Iranian military commanders and officials. He left Iran a few months ago.