Babak

TEHRAN—After almost seven months of political hegemony for the hardliners, orchestrated by and centered around the political command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the moderate conservatives now are back at center stage of Iran’s political scene.

The powerful return of Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani to the realm of policymaking may seem unfathomable to some observers, since Rafsanjani’s unofficial resignation from the post of Tehran’s Friday prayer leader and the intensity of attacks against him waged by the hardliners. These attacks had seemed to have damaged him beyond the point of no return. Analyzing Rafsanjani’s pattern of political behavior, however, would make us believe that such a return is certainly possible.

His return revolves around the recommendations he introduced at a controversial Friday prayer in Tehran last summer, when he outlined solutions to the crisis in the country. He called for releasing prisoners, many of whom were detained because they were demonstrating against the government, and freeing the media. At this Friday prayer, Rafsanjani also emphasized that the republic needed to be preserved, which was a criticism of the lawlessness that the state itself had engaged in to preserve their power. He also talked about how Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran’s founder, respected ordinary people, in contrast to Khamenei, who is willing to use any degree of force and violence against Iranian citizens. (This was an unflattering swipe at Khamenei.)

Rafsanjani’s apparent return to the fold enjoys the full backing of significant conservatives, such as Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani, an influential cleric and political figure; Ali-Akbar Nategh-Nouri, former interior minister and presidential candidate in 1997; Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani; and Mohsen Rezai, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Rafsanjani also enjoys the support of scholars and Grand Ayatollahs in the holy Shiite city of Qom.

Rafsanjani’s old and very close friendship with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his political wisdom made it possible for him to push back the hardliners in an environment that is no longer stricken by crisis. The crisis itself had created the best environment for the hardliners to thrive. Rafsanjani is now returning to lead the moderate conservatives at a time when the country is in a calmer situation.

Since the Green Movement has reformist qualities, its very survival is tied to peace and tranquility in society. The return of conservatives would pave the way for addressing the grievances of the protestors regarding the disputed June 12 election, which in turn might lead to reforming the political structure in Iran.

But if this indeed happens, the process will be long. It must be noted that the Islamic Republic is still facing a problem of legitimacy, despite the fact that, at least for now, the street demonstrations have subsided. And it also must be noted that all the forms of coercive apparatus in the country are in the hands of the hardliners. These hardliners believe that the answer to Iran’s problems only can be found through more repression. Therefore, structural reforms, with the goal of ending the crisis, will face harsh opposition from the hardliners in the highest levels of the government.

Babak is a political activist in Tehran.