Behnam Gholipour

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seems to believe the Islamic Republic of Iran is more isolated in the world than ever.

The evidence of Khamenei’s belief can be found in his public speech in Qom on January 9, “The current conditions in Iran are the same as Badr and Kheybar, and not Shaab-e-Abu Talib,” Khamenei said.

According to Islamic history Shaab-e-Abu Talib is a region in Saudi Arabia, where during the early days of Islam, the Prophet Mohammad and his followers were forced to live under an economic and social blockade for three years. According to Islamic literature, the situation was so bad that “they had to tie rocks to their stomachs” in order to alleviate the pain resulting from prolonged hunger.

Similar language emerged in an unprecedented statement by Mahmoud Bahmani, head of Iran’s Central Bank, announced on December 21, 2011, “We have to manage the society in a way to survive for two years. Just like if were trapped in Shaab-e-Abu Talib.”

Khamenei dismissed the head of the Central Bank’s statements, but by recognizing the situation similar to Badr and Kheybar, he has indirectly confessed that the Islamic Republic is isolated domestically, regionally, and internationally.

However, he believes, just like the Prophet of Islam, he should face his opponents with the small army at his disposal.

The Battles of Badr and Kheybar were two important battles fought by the Prophet of Islam against the enemies of the newly-established religion. He fought the enemies, despite the small size of his army, and was victorious in both battles.

Despite the current harsh economic conditions, this history indicates Khamenei is hopeful that by adopting the policies of “patience and endurance” and “threats against threats,” he and his supporters could stand against the United States and the West.

The threats coming from Iran, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, influencing Arab states in transition, publishing reports about capturing U.S. spies, and increasing the levels of domestic oppression are all tactics used by Iran in order to deal with the internal and external crisis.

By threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, the clerics in Iran are hoping to force the United States and the West to take a step back. They also hope to intimidate the regional countries and demonstrate Iran’s military might in order to improve their shaky legitimacy internally.

Iran has welcomed the recent developments in the Arab world with this strategy. The Islamic Republic is trying to convince its people that the citizens of the Arab world have chosen the same path as Iranians chose thirty-two years ago.

In the meanwhile, the Islamic Republic is trying to exploit its deteriorating relationship with the United States. Iran is holding the United States responsible for the majority of its own flaws, shortcomings, and internal problems. The regime has also tried to connect the members of the opposition to Western governments in order to legitimize the harsh repression against activists fighting for change.

His devotees, only one day after the storming of the British embassy in Tehran, confessed that they were “deceived” by a seven-member council whose members belong to the student basij (affiliated with the IRGC) in Tehran universities.

After two years of silence, Hassan Alaei, former IRGC Navy Chief, in a controversial op-ed published in Ettelaat newspaper, a publication under the direct supervision of Khamenei, implicitly advised the Supreme Leader to learn from Mohammad Reza Shah, who was toppled in the 1979 Islamic revolution. Alaei suggested that the oppression of the regime’s critics should be stopped.

For more than 10 months, a great number of Khamenei’s supporters have been clearly declaring that the Supreme Leader’s personal support for Ahmadinejad was a mistake. They believe that Ahmadinejad “deviated” from the political mainstream and plans to force the clergy from the country’s power structure.

In the meantime, after the implementation of the first phase of the subsidy reform program and the recent set of sanctions, Iran’s economic situation is more dreadful than ever. According to Asadollah Asgar Oladi, the head of Chamber of Iran-China Commerce, the inflation rate is close to 40%. Asgar Oladi warns that if the situation continues during the next six months, the country may face supply shortages.

The international sanctions on Iran, imposed due to the country’s defiance of UN Security Council resolutions on its nuclear program, are expanding day by day.

After nearly six years of establishing sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear program, Fereydoun Abbasi, Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy, admitted that some Iranian nuclear scientists are not willing to cooperate with Tehran on nuclear projects due to risks of sanctions.

Despite all the internal and external problems, the Islamic Republic has reacted to the recent set of Western sanctions with the “threats against threats” strategy.

Iran’s actions and statements show us how worried the government is of internal opposition and a threat of external wars.

Contrary to what the Iranian government claims, the foundations of its legitimacy have been shaken due to the crackdown of the protesters following the 2009 presidential election. Threatening the United States and the West and repressing the people domestically is not a sign of bravery. These actions are signals of an internal fear expressed in various forms by the Islamic Republic.

Behnam Gholipour is an Iranian journalist with more than 15 years of experience. He has written for various Iranian publications such as Abrar, Tose-eh, and Etedal. Gholipour also worked as a political analyst and reporter for Radio Zamaneh. He is currently the chief editor of the Digarban website.