The Logic of the Political Struggle in Iran

The second decade of the twenty-first century began with great upheaval in Iran and throughout the Middle East. The Arab Spring led to the overthrow of many totalitarian regimes throughout the region. The political elite also faced great protest movements and internal divisions.

The succession of events occurring simultaneously leads to confusion in the information field. But the logic of events is quite simple.

1. Confrontation in the Ranks of the Supreme Power

Relations between the faction of President Ahmadinejad and supporters of the Supreme Leader’s policies have been building for some time. Earlier, during the election campaign, the supreme leader supported his protégé in every possible way and invested a lot of political capital in promoting his candidacy.

But later, differences in the vision of the further development of the republic between the two figures became apparent. The President advocated the marginalization and radicalization of the religious movement, while the Supreme Leader tried to preserve the status quo.

His personnel policy has given him a large number of loyal and influential supporters, as well as money and information resources. Time will tell who will emerge victorious.

2. Friction between the Parliament and the Government

The parliamentarians and the judicial branch are also at odds with the presidential faction. The reason is the government’s long-standing disregard for new laws and court rulings.

Today there are several investigations into allegations of corruption and malfeasance. They potentially undermine the government’s credibility and popular support in many regions.

3. Development of the Green Movement

The liberal opposition is gaining momentum and actively interfering in the social, cultural, and political situation in the country. Leaders of the movement have recently published a new manifesto in which they describe their future actions and methods of struggle against the totalitarian regime.

They call on people from all walks of life and social classes to take to the streets and demonstrate their discontent by staging acts of civil disobedience and open protest. At the same time, cooperation between the regional Green Movement cells and the center in the capital has made it possible to achieve a high level of organization and cohesion.

More and more ordinary people support the protests and take to the streets to protest in the thousands. Not all of them are members of the Green Movement. Observers noted the presence of a large number of students and elderly people.

In turn, the government and the dependent media claimed that the Green leaders were being sponsored by the U.S. and falsified the real situation. According to them, pro-government marches and actions gather many times more participants who genuinely support the cause of the Islamic revolution.

4. Falling Regional Support for the Government

Support for the regime by the population in the provinces is significantly reduced. This leads to discontent not only in the major cities but also in smaller towns, where they are already much harder to control. Potentially, this will not cause as much damage to Ahmadinejad’s position, but it significantly reduces his chances of winning the next election.

5. The Economic Crisis

The economic crisis is one of the most serious problems the country facing today. The country is struggling with high inflation, currency devaluation, and unemployment. These problems are exacerbated by international sanctions that limit Iran’s ability to export its oil and gas resources. As well as the inability to import key goods for some sectors of the economy.

6. The Nuclear Issue

The nuclear issue is one of the most contentious issues in Iran today. The uranium enrichment program has raised international concerns that the state may seek to develop nuclear weapons. Iran insists that its program is solely for peaceful purposes, but the international community is not convinced.

This will subsequently lead to even greater isolation, sanctions, and potential conflicts with regional and world leaders.
The people of Iran are industrious and honest, which is evident in their unwillingness to indulge in a totalitarian regime. But time will tell whether they will succeed.